Smartphone Connections to Reach Six Billion by 2020, Fuelled by
Growth in the Developing World and Supported by Mobile Broadband Rollout
LONDON. - Friday, September 19th 2014 [ME NewsWire]
(BUSINESS
WIRE) Smartphones will account for two out of every three mobile
connections globally by 2020, according to a major new report by GSMA
Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA. The new study, “Smartphone
forecasts and assumptions, 2007-2020”, finds that smartphones account
for one in three mobile connections1 today, representing more than two
billion mobile connections. It forecasts that the number of smartphone
connections2 will grow three-fold over the next six years, reaching six
billion by 2020, accounting for two-thirds of the nine billion mobile
connections by that time. Basic phones, feature phones and data
terminals such as tablets, dongles and routers will account for the
remaining connections. The study excludes M2M from the connections
totals.
“The smartphone has sparked a wave of global innovation
that has brought new services to millions and efficiencies to businesses
of every type,” said Hyunmi Yang, Chief Strategy Officer at the GSMA.
“As the study released today shows, smartphones will be the driving
force of mobile industry growth over the next six years, with one
billion new smartphone connections expected over the next 18 months
alone.
“In the hands of consumers, these devices are improving
living standards and changing lives, especially in developing markets,
while contributing to growing economies by stimulating entrepreneurship.
As the industry evolves, smartphones are becoming lifestyle hubs that
are creating opportunities for mobile industry players in vertical
markets such as financial services, healthcare, home automation and
transport.”
Smartphone focus shifts to the developing world
The
developing world overtook the developed world in terms of smartphone
connections in 2011 and today accounts for two in every three
smartphones on the planet, according to the new study. It is predicted
that by 2020, four out of every five smartphone connections worldwide
will come from the developing world.
Asia Pacific today accounts
for about half of global smartphone connections, even though smartphone
penetration in the region is currently calculated at below 40 per cent.
The Asia Pacific total is boosted by the inclusion of China, the world’s
largest smartphone market, with more than 629 million smartphone
connections.
Top ten global smartphone markets, Q2 2014
Source: GSMA Intelligence
1 China 629.2
2 United States of America 196.8
3 Brazil 141.8
4 India 111.0
5 Indonesia 95.0
6 Russian Federation 83.9
7 Japan 66.1
8 Germany 48.5
9 United Kingdom 45.4
10 France 43.5
In
many developed markets, smartphone penetration is approaching the 70 to
80 per cent ‘ceiling’ at which growth tends to slow. According to the
report, smartphone adoption is forecast to reach 75 per cent in Europe
and North America by 2020. Smartphone growth in these two regions has
slowed in recent years; smartphone connections grew by 35 per cent in
North America and by 39 per cent in Europe between 2010 and 2013,
compared to growth rates of over 80 per cent during the period in Asia
Pacific and Latin America.
The top five countries worldwide with
the highest smartphone adoption rates today (as a percentage of total
connections) are Qatar, the UAE, Finland, South Korea and Norway. By
contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa currently has the lowest smartphone
adoption rate worldwide, at 15 per cent, but is expected to be the
fastest-growing smartphone region over the next six years as affordable
devices become more widely available and mobile broadband networks are
deployed across Africa.
Factors driving the smartphone market
The new GSMA Intelligence report highlights a number of factors influencing growth in the global smartphone market, including:
Rapid erosion of the Average Selling Price (ASP) of smartphones is
accelerating user migration from basic and feature phones to smartphones
Demand for low-end smartphones is driving volume growth, with sub-$50 smartphones becoming a reality
Operator-branded smartphones sold via operator retail channels is a key trend driving the low-end segment
Operator subsidies continue to play an important role in driving the
adoption of high-end devices, but are being scaled back at lower price
tiers
The availability of 4G-LTE smartphones is influenced by the
pace of allocation and assignment of 4G spectrum by regulators around
the world
The availability of ‘data-centric’ services and tariffs
is fuelling the adoption of smartphones in both developed and
developing economies
In the developing world, smartphone adoption
is linked to the availability of data tariffs tailored for
cost-conscious prepaid consumers
Smartphone growth is negatively
impacted by taxation imposed on devices by governments, especially in
price-sensitive developing economies
In the developing world,
there is a correlation between an increase in smartphone adoption and an
increase in mobile broadband connections
The full report,
“Smartphone forecasts and assumptions, 2007-2020”, is available to GSMA
Intelligence subscribers and to accredited members of the press on
request.
Click here to read more about this report on the GSMA blog: http://www.gsma.com/newsroom/smartphone/
Click here for more information on how to subscribe to GSMA Intelligence: http://www.gsma.com/newsroom/gsmai/
About the GSMA
The
GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide. Spanning
more than 220 countries, the GSMA unites nearly 800 of the world’s
mobile operators with 250 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem,
including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment
providers and Internet companies, as well as organisations in industry
sectors such as financial services, healthcare, media, transport and
utilities. The GSMA also produces industry-leading events such as Mobile
World Congress and Mobile Asia Expo.
For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at www.gsma.com. Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA.
Notes to editors
1
A mobile connection is defined as a unique SIM card (or a phone number
where SIM cards are not used) registered on a mobile network. It is not
the same as a mobile unique subscriber which refers to an individual who
can have multiple mobile connections. Machine-to-machine connections
are excluded from this study.
2 A smartphone connection is
defined as a SIM card registered and used in a smartphone device at the
end of the period. It does not represent the number of smartphone
devices sold or shipped.
Contacts
Media:
For the GSMA
Charlie Meredith-Hardy, +44 7917 298428
CMeredith-Hardy@webershandwick.com
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